Dear readers, please stay seated and buckle up your seatbelts while we are well underway in taking off into another turbulent year. It is only February, but the amount of bad news that has been reaching us on all channels lately might already drown out the good ones. Maybe it is inherently human to think that the apocalypse must be waiting right around the corner, but with everything that has been going on in the past few years, one can hardly blame anyone for expecting the worst at this point. A pandemic, a genocide, wars, record high temperatures, “natural” disasters of new scales, the list goes on and on. What is next? With the myriad of headlines flailing at us every day, staying informed might be an overwhelming task.
But fret not, dear readers, in this article I will be trying to give you a roadmap for this year, so you can at least stay up-to-date with the foreseeable events. While it may be impossible to mention all the expected highlights of the year, I have tried curating a list with at least the most incisive ones. Mainly, these are important political events that have the potential to alter the course of the world, especially elections. One might criticize that this is a very statist approach to world politics, which I do acknowledge. But I hope that this preliminary overview can still help you get a feeling of the course of 2024 and give you an impulse to dig deeper into topics that spark your interest.
January-March
Although we are only in February, a lot has already happened and a lot is also still scheduled to happen in the first three months of the year. Right on January 1st, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa were joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in the BRICS organization, setting the tone in its rivalry with the G7 as a strengthening and expanding BRICS is inevitably seen as a danger by some. Speaking of danger, the Taiwanese presidential election in January has also not been well received by everyone. The People’s Republic of China remains critical of the new president Lai Ching-te and his party, the DPP, which is known for its PRC-critical view. A fruitful exchange of opinion between the two parties is, therefore, not expected to happen in the near future. In line with these overall frosty vibes in the geopolitical arena, NATO has also launched its Steadfast Defender initiative which is the biggest exercise since the end of the Cold War.
1 January: BRICS group expansion
13 January: Taiwanese presidential election
22 January – 31 May: NATO Steadfast Defender
24 February: Second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
1 March: Iranian legislative elections
April-June
Although some of you might think that the Eurovision Song Contest might be the most important event happening this spring, I do have to remind you that some other significant events will be happening as well. For starters, the citizens of the world’s most populous country will be asked to cast their votes in April or May. Predictions show that the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will win once more. High on Modi’s agenda are infrastructure projects and Hindu nationalism, which leads some specialists to worry about his reelection as the persecution of Muslims has increased drastically ever since his first term.
Another historical election will happen in June on the other side of the globe in Mexico. According to polls, it is very likely that Mexico will elect its first female president. Politically leaning to the left, Claudia Sheinbaum might be toning down Mexico’s neoliberal economic policies and implementing more policies to protect the environment and reduce inequality. Tired of elections already? We are not done yet. Just a couple of days later, another incisive election will take place: the EU parliamentary elections. With far right parties being on the rise in Europe, the results might drastically change the cooperation within the EU as we know it. Finally, the G7 will meet in Italy this year to mainly discuss future policies regarding the Global South, the war in Ukraine, and cooperation between the member states.
April/May: Indian elections
2 June: Mexican elections
6-9 June: EU parliamentary elections
13-15 June: G7 summit
July-September
Halfway through the year, and we still have some hefty events coming up. For example, on July 1st Hungary is expected to take over the EU presidency, which will surely cause some uproar as Hungary is currently even considered to be stripped of its EU voting rights. Staying on theme with controversies: Indonesia’s new capital Nusantara is expected to be officially inaugurated in August. What was once seen as a symbol of the country’s bright future has slowly been tainted with dark undertones as murky practices during its making come to light. Furthermore, elections in South Africa are also expected to cause turmoil. For the first time since 1994, the African National Congress runs the risk of not reaching a majority rule. Due to major issues in the country like, for example, electricity shortages and stifling unemployment, opposition parties under the leadership of the Democratic Alliance are on the rise.
1 July: Hungary takes over EU presidency
9-11 July: NATO summit
26 July-11 August: Olympics in Paris
17 August: Inauguration of Nusantara
Some time in the Summer: South African elections
22-23 September: UN Summit of the Future
October-December
To save the best, well or at least most controversial for last: in the last quarter of the year the US will have the honor of choosing between the lesser of two evils as it seems at this moment in time. With Trump’s eligibility in question due to some unsettled charges, not all hope is lost yet that another matchup will happen despite Trump’s slight lead in recent polls. But the US will not be the only country to decide the fate of its country (and possibly the world) at the end of this year. Elections are also expected to have happened in up to a fifth of all African countries by the end of 2024, amongst which are Algeria, South Sudan, Ghana, Chad, and Namibia. In most countries, however, the ruling parties are expected to remain in power as only in Ghana the opposition has managed to find a footing. Overall, it, therefore, seems like 2024 will set the stage for an equally turbulent 2025.
24 October: BRICS summit
5 November: US elections
11-22 November: UN Climate Change Conference
18 November: G20 summit
– Vanessa
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