What do the Dutch elections mean for the international community?

On November the 27th the Dutch went to the polls, and anyone who follows Dutch politics knows the stakes were high. For the first time since 2010 the political landscape was completely turned upside down. Long-sitting PM Mark Rutte was replaced by Dilan Yesilgöz, a stern woman with an immigration background; two of the main left-wing parties joined forces; and our very own climate man, Frans Timmermans, returned from Brussels to lead them. Many major politicians left the arena, resulting in lesser-known faces to take their places. New parties rose up, some insignificant, some in the spotlights.

The battle suddenly wasn’t about every other party against the VVD (Rutte’s party). It was the ‘oer-Hollanders’ against the Randstad lefties. The stark contrast between Extinction Rebellion blocking the A12 and farmer protesters doing the same a year before, was never clearer. These elections were really about the solution to all of the problems in the Netherlands, the biggest one being the housing crisis. Should we blame the migrants or (rich) entrepreneurs? And, additionally: is the climate something we have to tackle now or are there matters that are more urgent?

The people have chosen to blame immigration, by voting for Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom. This immigration matter is something that should be looked at in a nuanced way. Mass immigration is a problem all over the world. Although Europe doesn’t shelter nearly as many people as countries like Türkiye, in small countries the effects are noticeable. We shouldn’t neglect these effects, but it’s important to look at the facts. Some statistics: last year 401.151 people immigrated to the Netherlands. Only 11% of these people came to seek asylum, another 21,6% were Ukrainian refugees (source: CBS). It is important to note that this influx of Ukrainians has made immigration the highest it’s been in decades. The largest part of immigration is actually made up of labor migrants. Which includes, of course, expats. Influx of foreign students has also grown, they now make up 15% of all students in higher education. So what does Geert Wilders’ election mean for internationals? Will we have more requirements for international students just like neighboring European countries do?

It’s hard to say. In the PVV’s party program, the focus is people seeking asylum. It clearly says they want a restrictive migration policy, to entirely stop giving out asylums, opt out of EU migration agreements, and possibly, even step out of the EU entirely. The party is less concerned with international students, but does have a few points about them. It wants to severely limit the influx of master’s students and only use Dutch in bachelor’s degrees. These are very radical stances, but there are three important things to consider.

Firstly, for the first time in many years, Wilders has vocalized his want to become prime minister. The PVV has been an opposition party since 2010. Not because they got few votes, but rather because the major parties didn’t want to be associated with Wilders because of his views and some of his statements. These elections were different, though. It is clear Wilders saw an opportunity and seized it. Mark Rutte’s party let the last cabinet fall over a migration deal. Wilders seized his chance; immigration had been his area of focus and now it had become a main theme in the next elections. This time, he took a more moderate position. In his campaign he mostly focused on being a leader for ‘ALL Dutch people’. Whatever Dutch may mean in his dictionary, it worked. Many people that wouldn’t have voted for him before, were compelled because of his apparent change in personality. Wilders said he’d let go of some of his most extreme viewpoints and be willing to cooperate, to follow the ‘poldermodel’ as we call it, the Dutch way of constantly trying to find a middle ground in politics. He, for instance, let go of his anti-Islam plans that form the root of his identity as a politician. Whether this was all campaign or he truly had a change of heart remains to be found out.

Other politicians don’t believe in that change of heart, to say the least. Many parties hold on to their unwillingness to cooperate with Wilders. VVD, the third party, has said they’d rather lay low and become an opposition party. As explained earlier, polarization between left and right is high, and the second biggest party is a leftist climate party. Even if PVV does manage to form a right-wing coalition with others, it is not that likely that Wilders will be favored for PM. This government formation has started out so rocky, many fear the Netherlands will break Belgium’s record for longest formation process.

The last thing to consider is the importance of expats and international students contributing to research and innovation in the Netherlands. For such a small country, innovation and technology is an integral part of the economy. It is impossible to find all the knowledge needed amongst the Dutch population.

If the elected parties get through the formation process, it really depends on which ones deliver major ministers to make a prediction for our migration policy. That being said, we can’t ignore democracy. The PVV had an enormous victory of 37 out of 150 seats, and isn’t the only rightwing party opposing immigration. There is therefore a big chance the Netherlands will have a much more hostile stance in migration deals and policy. I predict it is likely there will be stricter requirements for incoming foreign students, limitations in the amount of English education offered, and less benefits for expats in the future. No need to fear for the very worst, though. If Wilders manages to seize power, he will have to surrender to many of his more radical views.